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Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2021–2026

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Author - Stefano Porto Bonacci

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (72 slides); Excel | Asia–Pacific

"There are sizeable opportunities to monetise the demand for mobile and fixed data connectivity in both high- and low-income countries in EMAP."

Revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP), excluding China, will increase at a CAGR of 4.6% between 2021 and 2026, driven by FTTP take-up, mobile data user base growth and the migration of customers towards top-tier mobile plans (using 5G in the wealthiest countries). China’s revenue growth will be slower because of market saturation and competition.

In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for 13 individually modelled countries.

This report provides:

a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Region modelled		Countries modelled individually
Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)		Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar	Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile:

total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
mobile broadband
total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
IoT
penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT

Fixed:

voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Traffic

Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
Cellular data and messaging traffic

Network-independent metrics

GDP
Population
Households
Business sites
Exchange rates

Service revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
prepaid, contract, prepaid share
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)

Fixed:

total (retail plus wholesale)
share of GDP
per capita per month

Retail revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
per GB
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
voice, voice per minute
data, data per GB
handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
mobile broadband
IoT

Fixed:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
voice
dedicated connections
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ICT services

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Wholesale revenue

Mobile
Fixed

ASPU

Mobile:

total
voice
data
mobile broadband
IoT
handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data

Fixed:

voice
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ARPU

Mobile:

total
prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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