The OTT video worldwide: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

"The total number of OTT video users will reach 915 million by 2023, led by growth in the adoption of SVoD services."

915 million people will use premium OTT video services by 2023, up from 492 million in 2018. Increased adoption of subscription video on demand (SVoD) will be the main driver of this growth, but linear (live streaming) services will become an important part of the OTT market.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

• a forecast of the number of OTT users, their retail revenue (spend) and the average revenue per user (ASPU)
• forecasts split by category of OTT video service (SVoD, TVoD, linear)
• forecasts for eight regions
• an analysis detailing the individual regional trends.

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS:

• Users/subscribers
• Population penetration
• Spend
• ASPU

All of the above split by the following categories of OTT video service:

• Linear – channels (paid-for and free)
• Linear – events
• TVoD – rental
• TVoD – ownership
• SVoD (paid-for and free)
• operator OTT

Also split by device type:

• Smartphone
• Tablet
• PC
• TV set (including STB, smart TVs, consoles and other streamers)

7.Executive summary
The total spend on OTT video services will more than double between 2018 and 2023, from USD42 billion to USD96 billion
Two thirds of the OTT retail revenue growth between 2018 and 2023 will come from SVoD services; revenue from linear services will have the largest growth rate
Retail revenue will grow at a faster rate than the number of users across all regions thanks to an increase in service stacking and greater adoption of linear services
Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
Worldwide: OTT video penetration will be the highest in NA and DVAP; revenue from linear services will grow significantly in all regions during the forecast period
Worldwide: spend on OTT video services will grow from USD42 billion to USD96 billion between 2018 and 2023
Worldwide: the total number of OTT users will reach 915 million in 2023, most of which will subscribe to at least one SVoD service
Worldwide: SVoD will continue to be the main driver of OTT user base growth; the SVoD user base will increase by over 400 million between 2018 and 2023
Worldwide: the total retail revenue from TVoD services will reach USD8.1 billion by 2023; Western Europe will account for over a third of it
Worldwide: nearly 10% of households will use linear OTT services by 2023; the take-up in North America and DVAP will continue to be greater than that in other regions
Worldwide: revenue from pay-TV providers’ OTT services will account for nearly a quarter of the total revenue from OTT video services by 2023
Regional trends

20.Western Europe: SVoD retail revenue will almost double between 2018 and 2023; the linear services share of the total spend will grow from 18% to 29%
Western Europe: SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Europe, but linear service take-up will grow more rapidly
Western Europe: linear OTT services will account for 28% of the total OTT spend by 2023, up from just 18% in 2018
Central and Eastern Europe: the value of OTT video is constrained by low-priced traditional services and piracy, but the total retail revenue will still more than double
Central and Eastern Europe: the take-up of SVoD is growing at a similar pace to that of linear channels; new users are predominately based in Russia and Turkey
Central and Eastern Europe: the penetration of premium OTT services will remain relatively low in the region, except in Turkey, where linear services are very popular
Middle East and North Africa: OTT spend will double between 2018 and 2023 as OTT video take-up will continue to grow from a relatively limited base
Middle East and North Africa: day passes and microtransactions will help to drive premium OTT adoption, causing the number of SVoD and linear events users to grow
Middle East and North Africa: premium OTT video penetration will remain relatively low across the region; Qatar and the UAE are notable outliers
Sub-Saharan Africa: the introduction of new, affordable OTT services will cause ASPU to decline slightly from 2018 onwards, but revenue will grow rapidly


30.Sub-Saharan Africa: the number of OTT video users will quadruple, partly due to the increasing popularity of operator-bundled OTT services
China: OTT players’ investments in original content will result in an increase in service stacking, leading to ASPU growth during the forecast period
China: SVoD will continue to dominate the OTT market; 99% of OTT users will subscribe to at least one SVoD service in 2023
EMAP excl. China: OTT revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge, rather than paid for separately
EMAP excl. China: many consumers will take free OTT video services bundled with their mobile or fixed tariffs; the importance of linear/live content will increase
Emerging Asia–Pacific: premium OTT video penetration will be the highest in China and Malaysia due to the high popularity of SVoD services
Developed Asia–Pacific: OTT video retail revenue growth will continue to be driven by SVoD services in the majority of countries in the region
Developed Asia–Pacific: most OTT video users in DVAP are based in Japan; the market in Australia is similar to that in Japan, but that in New Zealand is different
Developed Asia–Pacific: revenue from linear services will grow rapidly in Australia and New Zealand following operator linear OTT service launches
North America: the total premium OTT spend will grow by USD17 billion between 2018 and 2023, driven by an increase in OTT ASPU and higher user penetration
North America: there will be nearly 120 million premium OTT users, most of whom will subscribe to SVoD services by 2023
Geographical coverage: the penetration of OTT services will be high in both Canada and the USA, but service usage will differ between the two countries

42.Latin America: SVoD will account for nearly 90% of the premium OTT spend in 2023, the majority of which will come from Netflix
Latin America: the total number of SVoD users will more than double between 2018 and 2023, growing from 31 million to 66 million
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason







 

List Of Figures

Figure 1: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2015–2023
Figure 2: OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, worldwide, 2018–2023
Figure 3: Growth in OTT video retail revenue and the number of OTT users, and ASPU, by worldwide region, 2018–2023
Figure 4: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, by region, worldwide, 2023
Figure 5: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, worldwide, 2013–2023
Figure 6: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2018–2023
Figure 7: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, worldwide, 2018–2023
Figure 8: OTT video users by service type, worldwide, 2015–2023
Figure 9: Distribution of SVoD users by world region, 2018–2023
Figure 10: OTT TVoD retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2015–2023
Figure 11: Household penetration of linear OTT services by region, worldwide, 2015–2023
Figure 12: Retail revenue from operator OTT and third-party OTT services, worldwide, 2015–2023
Figure 13: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 14: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 15: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 16: OTT video users by service type, Western Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 17: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Western Europe, 2023
Figure 18: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 19: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 20: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018–2023
Figure 21: OTT video users by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015–2023
Figure 22: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Central and Eastern Europe, 2023
Figure 23: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2023
Figure 24: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2018–2023
Figure 25: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2018–2023
Figure 26: OTT video users by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2023
Figure 27: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, Middle East and North Africa, 2023
Figure 28: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2023
Figure 29: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018–2023
Figure 30: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018–2023
Figure 31: OTT video users by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–2023
Figure 32: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, China, 2015–2023
Figure 33: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, China, 2018–2023
Figure 34: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, China, 2018–2023
Figure 35: OTT video users by service type, China, 2015–2023
Figure 36: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2015–2023
Figure 37: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2018–2023
Figure 38: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2018–2023
Figure 39: OTT video users by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2015–2023
Figure 40: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2023
Figure 41: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2023
Figure 42: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2018–2023
Figure 43: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2018–2023
Figure 44: OTT video users by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2023
Figure 45: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration premium OTT video users, developed Asia–Pacific, 2023
Figure 46: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, North America, 2015–2023
Figure 47: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, North America, 2018–2023
Figure 48: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2018–2023
Figure 49: OTT video users by service type, North America, 2015–2023
Figure 50: SVoD, TVoD and linear share of retail revenue for OTT video, and the household penetration of premium OTT video users, North America, 2023
Figure 51: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Latin America, 2015–2023
Figure 52: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2018–2023
Figure 53: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2018–2023
Figure 54: OTT video users by service type, Latin America, 2015–2023
Figure 55: Scope of our premium OTT video spend forecasts

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