The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will increase during the forecast period, supported by a more positive economic outlook. Mobile data revenue and fixed broadband deployments will remain key areas for retail revenue growth. The growth in retail revenue from mobile data (supported by improved LTE network coverage, LTE-A speeds and capacity upgrades) will be particularly crucial for the total telecoms revenue growth.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

8.Executive summary and recommendations

9.Telecoms revenue will continue to grow during the forecast period, driven by growth in handset data consumption and fixed network investments

10.Telecoms retail revenue growth will be driven by expanding LTE coverage, prepaid-to-contract migration and a focus on network improvements

11.Geographical coverage: 4G/5G connections will increase by more than 100% in most countries and NGA will account for 83.8% of FBB connections by 2023

12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators

14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

15.Market context: a favourable economic outlook across the region will maintain telecoms revenue growth

16.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries

17.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market

18.Market overview: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by smartphone adoption, usage of high-value handset data plans and increased service coverage

19.Mobile: growing demand for video streaming services will encourage data traffic growth as LTE-A coverage expands and smartphone penetration increases

20.Mobile: mobile penetration will decline in half of the modelled countries as a result of ongoing migration from multiple prepaid SIMs to single postpaid plans

21.Mobile: prepaid-to-postpaid migration and growing data consumption – encouraged by increasing 4G adoption – will drive expansions in ARPU for most markets

22.Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU

23.Fixed: a relatively low level of legacy infrastructure across CEE allows greater penetration of NGA technologies as networks expand

24.Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will increase by 23 percentage points between 2017 and 2023

25.Fixed: fixed broadband is highly competitive across CEE, but ASPU degradation will be offset by an increasing number of bundled offers

26.Fixed: fixed–mobile converged (FMC) bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth

27.Business services: ‘other business services’ provided by specialised IT players will be responsible for the vast majority of growth in revenue

28.IoT: the market will grow as operators begin to deploy infrastructure across CEE

29.Pay TV: CEE will continue to be a primarily traditional pay-TV market between 2018 and 2023

30.Individual country forecasts

31.Czech Republic: IoT will cause revenue growth in the mobile market, and investments in fixed broadband infrastructure will drive fixed revenue

32.Czech Republic: 5G services are expected to begin in 2019; this will be the earliest launch in CEE

33.Czech Republic: mobile competition will intensify if a fourth mobile operator enters the market

34.Czech Republic: forecast changes

35.Poland: the total market revenue growth will be limited by strong
competition but fixed broadband revenue will increase

36.Poland: operators will continue to invest in NGA networks and mobile
network upgrades

37.Poland: network upgrades and coverage expansions will be the focal point of operators’ strategies

38.Poland: forecast changes

39.Russia: total telecoms service revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period as the mobile market saturates

40.Russia: the growing availability and affordability of smartphones combined with increasing demand for online content will encourage 4G take-up

41.Russia: the fixed market has undergone a large degree of consolidation while the mobile market will expand in the coming years

42.Russia: forecast changes

43.Turkey: high inflation will artificially raise revenue growth, but strong technological improvements will also lead to increases in revenue

44.Turkey: data consumption will grow over time, driven by an increase in 4G adoption following its fairly late introduction to the market in 2015

45.Turkey: strong fixed and mobile investments will drive revenue growth but double-digit inflation will create a tough market situation

46.Turkey: forecast changes

47.Methodology

48.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

49.Examples of forecast input drivers

50.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

51.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

52.About the authors and Analysys Mason

53.About the authors [1]

54.About the authors [2]

55.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

56.Research from Analysys Mason

57.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2023
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017 and 20231
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and forthcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2013–2023

Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013–2023
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2013–2023
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013–2023
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2013–2023
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2013–2023
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2013–2023
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2013–2023
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2013–2023

Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013–2023
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2013–2023
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2013–2023
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2013–2023
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013–2023
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2013–2023
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2013–2023
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB trillion), 2013–2023
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2013–2023
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2013–2023
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2013–2023

Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2013–2023
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2013–2023
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013–2023
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2013–2023
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013–2023

Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2013–2023

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013–2023
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (MB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2013–2023
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2013–2023
Figure 63a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 63b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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