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The Telecoms capex: worldwide trends and forecast 2017–2025

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Telecoms capex will show some recovery following a slump in 2016/2017, but growth will be increasingly driven by wireless investment, especially 5G, rather than wireline, as a major wave of FTTx investment tails off. Another significant area of capex investment in the early 2020s will be in digital infrastructure and technology to support software-defined networking (SDN), and in time, network slicing. In comprehensive telelcoms capex forecast, spending is broken down by region, operator profile and 10 categories of investment, with trends fully analysed.

It will take a long time for communications service provider (CSP) capex levels to recover following their decline in 2016, and they will not reach the 15-year peak from 2015 during the forecast period. Wireless networks are increasingly driving capex because the most intensive period of FTTx build-out will be ending just as 5G is starting to take off. The sharp fall in FTTx spending in the 2020s will only be partially offset by other wireline investments such as long-haul and cloud. Non-CSPs are gradually coming into play, are introducing new patterns of investment and, sometimes, are co-investing with CSPs.

This is first comprehensive forecast of every aspect of telecoms operator capex and it provides an invaluable analysis of the key capex trends for operators, vendors and investors, at a time when spending on fibre, wireless and digital technology are increasingly co-dependent.

THE REPORT PROVIDES:

a detailed breakdown of CSP capex to 2025, well into the early 5G era
an in-depth view of how 5G, as well as related developments such as virtualisation and automation, will affect the patterns of investment
capex envelopes for six different CSP profiles with very different spending priorities
capex forecasts broken down by 7 regions plus China, and by 10 categories of spending including access, core, IT, infrastructure, digital and non-network assets.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

7.Executive summary
Executive summary: 5G spending will offset the decline in FTTx capex from 2019 onwards; digital infrastructure and new entrants will also drive capex growth
General capex trends
Capex will grow slowly during the forecast period and will not reach the peak seen in 2015, mainly because of the slow down in FTTx spending
Capex growth will mainly be driven by the select group of CSPs that is focused on 5G or digital transformation; some of these CSPs will be new entrants
Fixed CSPs’ capex intensity will drop as they make use of existing FTTx networks, but MNOs face high capex intensity until 5G equipment costs fall after 2024
Mobile and 5G
Mobile will be the main driver of capex due to the expansion of 4G and the deployment of 5G, both of which will require investment in more than the RAN
The impact of 5G on capex will be limited before 2023 and will mainly affect infrastructure; after that, 5G capex will increase and will overtake that for 4G
5G roll-outs are not as closely aligned to digital investments as previously expected; 5G capex growth until 2023 will therefore be slower than anticipated
5G will lead to an increase in spectrum demand from 2018–2022, although the shift in focus to high-capacity bands and the rise in sharing will limit price inflation
Key trends for fixed networks

19.FTTx spending is now in decline having peaked in 2016, though new overbuilds could be enabled by higher levels of infrastructure sharing
Long-haul lines, core upgrades and digital investments will keep fixed-line capex stable as FTTX spending slows down
Cablecos will reduce their capex more effectively than other fixed-centric CSPs, and will invest in digital platforms to diversify revenue and reduce CPE cost
EMAP will be the only region with double-digit fixed-line capex growth; China and DVAP will see sharp declines but Western Europe will be resilient
Areas of growth for CSP capex
The main driver of capex growth will be the migration to digital infrastructure and not solely 5G, though the RAN will remain the largest outlay in the CSP business
The RAN share of mobile capex will decline, but the absolute spending on the RAN will not, thereby diminishing MNOs’ hopes of a new low-cost 5G architecture
There will be a significant change in IT capex patterns in order to support the gradual migration of networks towards virtualisation, white boxes and software
CSPs will gradually make use of digital infrastructure to transform their networks; this will account for the biggest growth in network spending from 2021
The capex/opex ratio will shift towards opex as CSPs look for capex savings through sharing and outsourcing
Profiles of CSPs that will drive capex

30.There are six types of CSP, each with a distinctive capex profile, and they will adopt different patterns of investment as their business models diversify
There are four main investment strategies with varying levels of risk, and CSPs’ choices will determine how aggressively they will adopt digital transformation
Fixed CSPs in emerging markets will grow their spending from a small base, but others will keep work to stabilise or reduce capex
Integrated CSP account for the bulk of capex, but they are looking to use their assets to support new revenue streams and improve capex intensity
Integrated and mobile CSPs in developed markets will commit heavily to mobile network build-outs; fixed CSPs will shift spending to IT and digital infrastructure
Fixed CSPs in emerging markets will shift their capex to IT and digital platforms to improve agility, but for mobile networks will dominate capex for other players
Fixed and infrastructure capex will decline sharply in China once it is 5G-ready; virtualised mobile platforms will dominate capex from 2020
Non-traditional telecoms investors will play an increasing role in telecoms markets, and their capex will increase by 25%
Co-investment and asset sharing will start to change capex patterns and increase efficiencies for established CSPs
About the author and Analysys Mason
About the author
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures:

Figure 1: CSP capex for three key growth areas and total CSP capex, 2017–2025
Figure 2: Total telecoms capex spending, worldwide, 2010–2025
Figure 3: CSP capex, fixed and mobile, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 4: Capex by non-traditional CSPs (excluding towercos), fixed and mobile, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 5: Capex/revenue ratio for CSPs (excluding OTT and UTF), worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 6: Mobile capex in developed markets, 2017–2025
Figure 7: Mobile capex in emerging markets, 2017–2025
Figure 8: FTTx capex allocated to 5G, 2017–2025
Figure 9: Mobile capex allocated to 5G, 2017–2025
Figure 10: RAN capex, 5G and other radio technologies, 2017–2025
Figure 11: Virtualised and conventional mobile network capex for RAN, core and transport, 2021
Figure 12: Virtualised and conventional mobile network capex for RAN, core and transport, 2025
Figure 13: Normalised value per MHz/pop for C-band spectrum, in auctions since 2017
Figure 14: Annualised capex for spectrum licences (excluding annual fees), worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 15: FTTx capex, access and infrastructure, 2017–2025

Figure 16: Fixed access capex, by technology, 2017–2025
Figure 17: Capex for four fixed-line areas, 2017–2025
Figure 18: Total cableco capex, worldwide, 2017–2025
Figure 19: Cumulative capex investment profile, cablecos and other fixed-line CSPs, 2017–2025

Figure 20: Fixed-line capex in developed markets, 2017–2025
Figure 21: Fixed-line capex in emerging markets, 2017–2025
Figure 22: Total CSP capex by investment category, cumulative, 2017–2025

Figure 23: Cumulative mobile capex by category, 2017–2025

Figure 24: Conventional IT and digital infrastructure capex, 2017–2025

Figure 25: IT capex, by category, 2017–2025

Figure 26: Network transformation capex, by category, region and CSP type, 2021

Figure 27: Network transformation capex, by category, region and CSP type, 2025

Figure 28: Opex as a percentage of total network and IT spending by CSPs, 2017–2025

Figure 29: CSPs’ targets for mobile networks and IT opex by 2025

Figure 30: Analysys Mason’s six CSP profiles

Figure 31: Four alternative investment approaches for CSPs
Figure 32: Total mobile capex, by CSP profile, 2017–2025

Figure 33: Total fixed and mobile capex, by CSP profile, 2017–2025

Figure 34: Total fixed capex, by CSP profile, 2017–2025

Figure 35: The multi-functional roles of fibre in the new access layer

Figure 36: Breakdown of cumulative capex for MNOs in developed markets (%), 2017–2025
Figure 37: Breakdown of cumulative capex for integrated CSPs in developed markets (%), 2017–2025
Figure 38: Breakdown of cumulative capex for fixed CSPs in developed markets (%), 2017–2025
Figure 39: Breakdown of cumulative capex for MNOs in emerging markets (%), 2017–2025
Figure 40: Breakdown of cumulative capex for integrated CSPs in emerging markets (%), 2017–2025

Figure 41: Breakdown of cumulative capex for fixed CSPs in emerging markets (%), 2017–2025

Figure 42: Breakdown of cumulative capex for Chinese CSPs (%), 2017–2025
Figure 43: Capex for fixed, mobile and converged networks, China, 2017–2025

Figure 44: Non-traditional CSP telecoms capex, by player type, worldwide, 2017–2025

Figure 45: Non-traditional CSP fixed network capex, by category, worldwide, 2017–2025

Figure 46: Additional telecoms network capex from industrial co-investment, 2017–2025

Figure 47: Potential routes for co-investment in 5G networks

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