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The Communication services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP), including country views for China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and messaging services
quantification of the level of substitution of traditional services by OTT alternatives
user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
data provided for the region as a whole and for Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
individual profiles for China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5.Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: 72 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2018; this is 12 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS
Worldwide: 80% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2018; the penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years
Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; Facebook’s future revenue growth will come from enhanced user monetisation
Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase
Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
Worldwide: operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 3.5 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2023
Worldwide: many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, primarily to improve indoor coverage; the roll-out of Wi-Fi 6 will further increase its adoption and usage
Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing rapidly as operators worldwide are rolling out the technology on Android devices
Regional trends
Emerging Asia–Pacific: Facebook is challenging local players and is set to become the dominant messaging provider in the region

18.Emerging Asia–Pacific: the roll-out of voice and video features on common communication services has made users accustomed to OTT voice services
Country-level trends
China: Tencent’s services dominate the messaging markets; operators
are focusing on voice services
Indonesia: LINE dominates the youth market; operators are focusing
on improving LTE (and voice) coverage
Malaysia: Facebook dominates the app market and is driving regional
platform players out
Philippines: operators are hoping for success with RCS in what
remains a strong traditional messaging market
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast outputs and definitions
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures:

Figure 1: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023

Figure 3: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012–2018
Figure 4: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 5: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 6: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 8: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2016–2023
Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 11: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, China, 2012–2023
Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Indonesia, 2012–2023
Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, Malaysia, 2012–2023

Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Philippines, 2012–2023
Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

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