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The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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DESCRIPTION

We expect that the total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe (WE) will remain almost flat over the forecast period, and only the fixed broadband market has potential for significant revenue growth. The launch of 5G mobile services will only have a limited effect on mobile revenue growth due to intense competition in most countries in the region.

Fixed broadband revenue will increase in Western Europe sustained by significant investments in FTTP/B network roll-out and the growing take-up of high-speed plans.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary and recommendations
The total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe will grow marginally; revenue will only grow significantly in the fixed broadband market
Overall, the telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will increase at a negligible rate, but there will be significant differences between countries
Geographical coverage: the NGA share of connections will only remain low in a few countries during the forecast period
Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Market context: the mobile market in WE is saturated, but fixed broadband household penetration could grow in many countries
Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
[Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
Market overview: the total revenue will remain flat during the forecast period despite growth in fixed broadband revenue
Mobile: blended ARPU will remain stable, thanks to growing data usage and customers migration to contract plans
Mobile: mobile penetration will decrease in most countries during the forecast period, averaging 121% in WE in 2024
Mobile: the evolution of ARPU will vary by country because of different market conditions and competitive landscapes
Mobile: mobile service revenue will decline modestly during the forecast period; the launch of 5G services is expected to have a small impact on mobile revenue
Fixed: the share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators aggressive roll-out targets and governments initiatives

Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU for the whole region will remain almost flat supported by growing consumer demand for high-speed broadband
Fixed: the total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections
Specialist business services: other business services revenue will continue to grow as enterprises migrate further towards cloud-based business solutions
IoT: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector; 5G has the potential to generate new sources of revenue, but not in the short term
Pay TV: retail revenue from pay-TV services will grow at a moderate rate, driven by the growing popularity of OTT services
Individual country forecasts
France: aggressive price competition in the French fixed market will lead to a decline in the total telecoms revenue during the forecast period
France: government initiatives are driving technological developments in both the fixed and mobile segments
France: investments in 5G and fibre will lead to a considerable increase in the take-up for both technologies, but will have a limited impact on revenue
France: forecast changes
Germany: the total telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period and the growth will come from fixed and mobile
Germany: FTTC-based VDSL will be the most-widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024

Germany: Vodafone is emerging as Deutsche Telekoms leading challenger after its purchase of Liberty Globals cable network
Germany: forecast changes
Italy: intense competition will result in declining mobile revenue, whereas an increasing number of FBB connections will lead to growing fixed revenue
Italy: the take-up of 5G services will accelerate from 2020 onwards once 5G coverage becomes nationwide
Italy: competition in the mobile market is expected to remain high; a growing take-up of fibre-based network services will boost FBB penetration
Italy: forecast changes
Spain: mobile revenue growth will be limited by competition in the value segment and cheap additional SIMs in FMC bundles
Spain: DSL and narrowband fixed voice connections will decline to zero by 2025
Spain: operators are changing their approach to owning infrastructure and are facing increasingly intense competition in the video segment
Spain: forecast changes
UK: FTTP roll-outs will fuel growth in fixed broadband revenue
UK: all four MNOs have launched 5G services, but rapid take-up will not lead to ARPU growth
UK: the telecoms market in the UK is in a phase of technological transition, and operators are racing to roll out FTTP and 5G mobile services
UK: forecast changes

Methodology
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About the authors
Analysys Masons consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Western Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024

Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Western Europe, 2014–2024

Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, France, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2014–2024

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2014–2024

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2014–2024

Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UK, 2014–2024
Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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