The Fixed services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019-2024

The total fixed market revenue will increase marginally between 2019 and 2024 due to high competition in several countries. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides a comprehensive fixed telecoms market forecast for Western Europe and for 16 individually modelled countries.

Government investments will help to increase the availability of high-speed fixed broadband connections in Western Europe, but fixed service revenue growth will be limited.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

  • a 5-year forecast of 110 fixed KPIs for the Western European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for fixed operators.

 

5.Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: the increase in fixed broadband revenue will be driven by increasing next-generation access (NGA) take-up
Regional trends
The total fixed retail revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services
The share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators’ aggressive roll-out targets in several countries
Fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
Consumer demand for high-speed broadband will drive ASPU growth in a few countries, but the ASPU trend for the region as a whole will remain flat
The total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by a stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections
Country-level trends
France: aggressive price competition will lead to a decline in the total fixed service revenue during the forecast period
Germany: FTTC-based VDSL will be the most-widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024
Italy: a growing take-up of fibre-based network services will boost FBB penetration
Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators

 


20.UK: FTTP roll-outs will be one of a limited number of opportunities for revenue growth in the fixed market
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

 

List of figures:


Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Fixed service revenue in WE and the rest of the world, 2014–2024


Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by fixed service type, and fixed ARPU, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2024


Figure 5: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024


Figure 6: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 7: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
Figure 8: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 9: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 10a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024


Figure 10b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024


Figure 11b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 12: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024


Figure 13: Broadband connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–2024


Figure 15: Broadband connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024


Figure 17: Broadband connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 18: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024


Figure 19: Broadband connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024


Figure 20: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 21: Broadband connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024


 

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