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The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 2016–2021

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Telecoms service revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will grow at a 3.5% CAGR during 2016–2021 to USD54.1 billion amidst macroeconomic challenges.

This report provides an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA as a whole and for 11 key countries.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5.Executive summary and regional forecasts

6.Telecoms service revenue in SSA will grow at a 3.5% CAGR during 2016–2021 to USD54.1 billion amidst macroeconomic challenges

7.Smartphones and 4G/5G: South Africa will have the highest 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2021 – at 26.5% and 61.5%, respectively

8.Fixed services: Broadband will experience strong growth from a small base, with wireless access retaining the largest share through 2021

9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: Smartphone and handset data will grow quickly; inclusion of new SA fixed broadband data

10.Forecast revision: Mobile and fixed data services will be the main drivers of revenue growth, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

11.Individual country forecasts

12.Ghana: Mobile handset data revenue will grow stronger than last forecasted due to rising 3G/4G coverage and smartphone take-up

13.Kenya: Demand for smartphones and 4G services will be stronger-than-expected; cable will continue to dominate the fixed market

14.Nigeria: Mobile subscriber growth will be more modest than last forecasted; handset data will benefit from recent LTE launches

15.South Africa: Mobile still has growth potential, while fibre is becoming accessible to many households thanks to investment

16.Tanzania: The expansion of LTE networks and rising smartphone take-up will help mobile handset data revenue to grow

17.Uganda: Mobile data revenue will increase faster due to more high-tech demand, but competition will drive overall ARPU down

18.About the author and Analysys Mason

19.About the authors

20.About Analysys Mason

21.Research from Analysys Mason

22.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and mobile 4G/5G share of total mobile connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021

Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa

Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2021

Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021

Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2011–2021

Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Ghana

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2011–2021

Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kenya

Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2011–2021

Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Nigeria

Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Africa

Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2011–2021

Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Tanzania

Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2011–2021

Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Uganda

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