This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market worldwide. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

72 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2018; this is 12 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS.

This report provides:

• forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS
• quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
• user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
• an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
• detailed forecasts for 63 individual countries and eight regions.

<div>6.Worldwide trends<br /> Worldwide: 79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS<br /> Worldwide: 82% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2019; the growth in penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years<br /> Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; the largest opportunities for penetration growth reside outside voice and messaging<br /> Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase<br /> Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions<br /> Worldwide: operators are continuing to migrate smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 5.7 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2024<br /> Worldwide: operators are continuing to roll out Wi-Fi calling services to improve consumer call quality and relieve mobile network traffic<br /> Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing, and 48% of smartphone users will use the technology by the end of the forecast period<br /> Western Europe<br /> Western Europe: the use of SMS is in steep decline, largely due to the Facebook ecosystem<br /> Western Europe: operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be strongly challenged by alternative providers<br /> Central and Eastern Europe<br /> Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators</div>
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<div>20.Central and Eastern Europe: operators are providing indoor and outdoor HD voice coverage and VoIP is gaining traction<br /> Middle East and North Africa <br /> Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate the messaging space and operators are not keen to compete<br /> Middle East and North Africa: legacy voice services will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge<br /> Sub-Saharan Africa <br /> Sub-Saharan Africa: social media and messaging services will continue to be important drivers of revenue growth for operators<br /> Sub-Saharan Africa: operators’ revenue from mobile voice will continue to grow, although OTT players will also benefit from the increase in mobile voice adoption<br /> Emerging Asia–Pacific <br /> Emerging Asia–Pacific: Facebook is challenging local players and is set to become the dominant messaging provider in the region<br /> Emerging Asia–Pacific: the roll-out of voice and video features on common communication platforms has made users accustomed to OTT voice services<br /> Developed Asia–Pacific <br /> Developed Asia–Pacific: operators in Japan and South Korea have joined forces to launch RCS under a common brand<br /> Developed Asia–Pacific: operator circuit-switched voice traffic is being substituted by VoLTE and OTT voice services<br /> North America <br /> North America: operators will make use of the residual strength of their<br /> messaging proposition to acquire a significant share of the A2P value chain</div>
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<div>35.North America: most voice traffic will come from operator IP services by 2020 due to operators’ investments in new technologies<br /> Latin America <br /> Latin America: SMS traffic has already peaked in the larger markets because traffic has migrated to OTT services; the major operators are committing to RCS<br /> Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant during the entire forecast period<br /> Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> Forecast outputs and definitions<br /> Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<div>List of figures:</div>
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<p>Figure 1: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012–2019<br /> Figure 2: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users, worldwide, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 3: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 4: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2017–2024<br /> Figure 6: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2017–2024<br /> Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2017–2024<br /> Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2017–2024<br /> Figure 9: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2015–2024<br /> Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2024 <br /> Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2014</p>
<p>Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2012–2024<br /> Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs<br /> Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report</p>

 

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