The Wireless network data traffic in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is composed of a diverse range of countries, but mobile network operators (MNOs) across the region hope to use the mobile data segment to drive future revenue growth.

This report assesses the extent to which MNOs in MENA will be able to increase cellular data traffic and how they are trying to achieve this aim.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive summary

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period

Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in India and China is driving cellular data traffic growth

Worldwide: Even in 2021 there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage

Worldwide: Dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets

Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic’s share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets

Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue

Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed

Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator

REGIONAL TRENDS

Middle East and North Africa: GCC markets are showing solid rates of growth

Middle East and North Africa: There is still significant potential for traffic growth in the region

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

Oman: Stable market dynamics limit dramatic data traffic growth

Qatar: Data usage is low compared to average income levels

Saudi Arabia: Traffic from dongles and routers will become less important

UAE: Data traffic growth is restricted by the affordability of prepaid data to immigrant groups

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

Definition of geographical regions [1]

Definition of geographical regions [2]

Forecast methodology and assumptions

ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON

About the author

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

 

List of figures

Figure 1: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021

Figure 2: Cellular data traffic by region, 2014–2021

Figure 3: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014–2021

Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014–2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts

Figure 5: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide

Figure 6: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021

Figure 7: South Korea’s public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators’ networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014–3Q 2016

Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014–2016

Figure 9: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016

Figure 10: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015

Figure 11: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1)

Figure 12: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected MENA markets, 2014–2017

Figure 13: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected MENA markets, 2015 and 2016

Figure 14: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2021

Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, Oman, 2016–2021

Figure 16: Cellular data traffic by device type, Qatar, 2016–2021

Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, Saudi Arabia, 2016–2021

Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by device type, UAE, 2016–2021

Figure 19a: Regional breakdown used in this report

Figure 19b: Regional breakdown used in this report

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