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The Wireless network data traffic in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

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DESCRIPTION

Cellular data traffic in emerging Asia–Pacific is increasing rapidly and will account for 46% of total traffic worldwide in 2021. This report analyses the drivers behind this trend and the consequences of such growth for emerging Asia–Pacific mobile network operators.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive summary

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period

Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in India and China is driving cellular data traffic growth

Worldwide: Even in 2021 there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage

Worldwide: Dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets

Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic’s share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets

Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue

Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed

Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator

REGIONAL TRENDS

Emerging Asia–Pacific: Growth rates have been highest in China, India and Indonesia

Emerging Asia–Pacific: The region will continue to lead in global cellular data traffic growth rates in 2017

Country-level trends

China: Widespread 4G coverage and OTT service bundling will drive mobile traffic growth

India: Reliance Jio’s LTE-only market entry in 2016 has boosted 4G connections and data usage

Indonesia: Bonus 4G data quotas are boosting traffic in the short term, but MNOs will move away from this approach

Malaysia: New entrants will further intensify competition, prompting responses from existing players

Philippines: Cellular traffic from dongles and routers will continue to account for a large percentage of total traffic

Thailand: Expansion of 4G networks and higher smartphone penetration will drive traffic growth

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

Definition of geographical regions [1]

Definition of geographical regions [2]

Forecast methodology and assumptions

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON

About the authors

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021

Figure 2: Cellular data traffic by region, 2014–2021

Figure 3: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014–2021

Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014–2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts

Figure 5: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide

Figure 6: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021

Figure 7: South Korea’s public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators’ networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014–3Q 2016

Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014–2016

Figure 9: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016

Figure 10: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015

Figure 11: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1)

Figure 12: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected emerging Asia–Pacific markets, 2014–2017

Figure 13: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected emerging Asia–Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016

Figure 14: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021

Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, China, 2016–2021

Figure 16: Cellular data traffic by device type, India, 2016–2021

Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, Indonesia, 2016–2021

Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by device type, Malaysia, 2016–2021

Figure 19: Cellular data traffic by device type, Philippines, 2016–2021

Figure 20: Cellular data traffic by device type, Thailand, 2016–2021

Figure 21a: Regional breakdown used in this report

Figure 21b: Regional breakdown used in this report

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