The Mobile operator capex spending: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2025

This is Analysys Mason's first comprehensive forecast of mobile operator capex spending and provides an invaluable companion to our wireline network capex forecasts, at a time when investment in fibre and wireless are increasingly co-dependent.

 7.Worldwide trends
 8.5G spending will help to drive a 23% rise in capex from 2018 to <br /> 2025, but its pattern will be radically different from 3G and 4G
 9.Five types of operator – each with a distinctive capex profile – will dominate regional mobile investment as the MNO model diversifies
 10.Fragmentation of the operator models means new patterns of investment
 11.5G will be deployed in phases over a decade, initially led by integrated operators, but increasingly introducing disruptors with new economics
 12.Different operator types will have different investment strategies within these new capex norms; emerging markets will drive growth
 13.Prior to the deployment of 5G radio, most operators are investing in foundations that will alter the economics of the new network
 14.The need for a lower cost base for 5G will increase sharing and wholesaling, creating a split between utility and capex-light MNOs
 15.New software-driven architectures, in tandem with increased sharing and outsourcing, will represent significant capex, reducing future costs
 16.Operator trends
 17.Developed market integrated: Integrated operators will use their fibre to transform <br /> the network cost base and move to a more wholesale-driven model
 18.Developed market integrated: Early moves to 5G and new architectures will create <br /> a heavy capex burden in 2020, before efficiencies have an impact
 19.DM mobile-centric: The heavy spending to assure a lead in 4G is <br /> slowing as operators pursue RoI and fibre partnerships

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